Theorist Richard urban, Florida has an interesting hypothesis for why the rate of violent crime in the cities of our country have decreased in 15 years.
Florida concealed on the common explanation for the decrease in violent crime (murder, rape, armed robbery, aggravated assault), which fell by 5.5% from 2009 to 2010.? He drubs rightfully Levitt - Donohue theory of abortion.? It mentions the theory that lead emissions reduction policies contributed to decrease violent crime.? Incarceration rates get poo-poohed while the application of the Act and citizen awareness are given their due.
But, perhaps driven by need of a theorist to be counterintuitive, Florida writes:
But the key factor, it appears that resides in the racial, ethnic and demographic diversity increasing in our cities and metropolitan areas. Our analysis concluded that the share of the Hispanic population is negatively associated with urban crime. The crime also dropped the increase in the percentage of the population is not white, and the percentage who is gay. And all the variables in our analysis, which is more constant negative associated with crime is percentage of foreign-born residents than.?Not only we are negatively correlated (-. 36) between first born abroad and crime in General, the pattern held across the many, various types of crime - murder and arson for car theft and burglary.
As Steve Sailer noted, persons born abroad are afraid of deportation.? They play by the rules - through their ' t of ' and dotting their 'i'.? But it is the first generation offspring which are in the analysis of Florida.
Florida writes:
In the popular imagination, the crime is commonly associated with densely populated cities.? Here again, we can separate fact from myth.? Major cities and suburban high-density older showed decreases in most major crime between 1990 and 2008, according to the study by the Brookings.
Florida attributed this change to something organic on those that make up the city.? But the change is more easily explained by rational responses to crime rates past.? It would be more logical that the inner cities become safer because strategies to eliminate crime y.? Because cities were considered as full of criminals, city officials answered the question and much invested in the prevention of crime.? Units of the task force gang were a great help.? In addition, people living in areas more naturally adapted to their own experiences of first and second hand with crime.
Says Florida, crime is still more common on a basis per capita in cities; It is only pointing out that the crime rate is declining faster in the densely populated area.? But it is quite intuitive.? If money is thrown to any kind of investment, the returns are relatively high in the early stages of the investment.? In other words, the crime rate is really high are much easier to cut than the moderate crime rate.
In view of this, Florida kind of doubt himself when he wrote:
While the part born abroad was positively associated with crime in 1990 and 2000, this relationship had disappeared by 2008. The part born abroad of population now shows no relationship of property crimes and violent negative relationship.
Florida provides no explanation of why born abroad magically become more criminal to less criminal in a period of time.? His thesis is that diversity is great, but this is apparently not great until recently.? It seems that the benefits of diversity are contingent on anything other than outrageous diversity.? My hypothesis is that - taking into account the workload of the life of the city and the reduction of social welfare - foreign-born programs (more criminal) less desirable are not resident in the cities.? Instead, they have probably been replaced by born foreigners who have the education, skills and good-paying jobs: all markers for low crime.
Florida quotes the author of the Brookings report that provides statistics for his piece:
Since 1990, all types of communities in major metropolitan areas of the country have become more diverse.? Crime fell faster in large cities and the suburbs high density which were the poorest, most minority and was the first high crime rates.? At the same time, all kinds of suburbs saw their share of the poor, minority, and increase the foreign-born residents.? As the suburbs diverse crime rates fell.
Perhaps, instead, the country is a structural decline in criminal activity which has nothing to do with (or perhaps in spite of) the diversity of the population.? Florida and Brookings are all sorts of hypotheses of causation here.
And the most compelling of all is the bullied by Florida to the issue of blacks and crime.? He tried to minimize the decreasing correlation between the prevalence of black people in a city and its crime rate, but it is still a "modest" 0.37 (this correlation is the highest of all those Florida mentions in his piece).
It seems disingenuous to Florida to write an article which praises the merits of diversity while ignoring the group who is the child of posters for diversity in our country.? Black confused assumption of Florida - especially considering that black people are moving away from downtowns and suburbs or more sparsely populated South.
Florida has written a piece of the diversity and foreign-born touting as the key to the fall of crime rates.? He emphasized that primary born cities is increased by 5.9% between 1990 and 2008.? It could as easily have pointed out that the percentage of blacks decreased by 2.7% over the same period of time.
没有评论:
发表评论